PRESS RELEASE: New Bureau of Reclamation Projections Highlight Impending Crisis at Glen Canyon Dam

For Immediate Release
August 18, 2025

Contact: 801-631-2774 Eric Balken; 801-699-1856 Zach Frankel; 970-218-8310 Gary Wockner

New Bureau of Reclamation Projections Highlight Impending Crisis at Glen Canyon Dam

Coalition of environmental groups say interim guideline negotiations alone won’t solve the problem: Glen Canyon Dam must be bypassed

The Bureau of Reclamation released new two-year water level forecasts for Lake Mead and Lake Powell that painfully demonstrate the obvious: there is a high likelihood that Lake Powell is going to crash. Reclamation’s forecast shows that Lake Powell could drop to minimum power pool as early as November 2026, meaning no hydropower will be generated. Glen Canyon Dam will become a bottleneck at that level, threatening the water supply for 25 million people downstream, and may force drastic water use reductions in Utah, Colorado and New Mexico.

When Lake Powell’s water elevation is at or below 3,490 feet above sea level, the only way to release water from the dam is through smaller diameter River Outlet Works. These outlets have limited release capacity because they were never meant to be the dam’s only outlets, and have suffered cavitational damage when operated at low Lake Powell levels.

 Eric Balken, executive director of Glen Canyon Institute says, “For too long, the decision makers of the Colorado River have avoided the elephant in the room: Glen Canyon Dam. Until the dam is bypassed so that it can operate at low levels, the Colorado River will be hamstrung.”

Zach Frankel, executive director of Utah Rivers Council says, “This forecast makes clear that no matter what is agreed to in the interim guideline negotiating room, the plumbing problems at Glen Canyon Dam won’t be solved. We need to stop thinking about those two issues as one problem.”

 As Basin states remain in a stalemate negotiating water cuts in the Post-2026 Colorado River EIS, the Bureau of Reclamation has refused to include options to modify Glen Canyon Dam in any way. This is despite calls from Lower Basin states that Reclamation include Glen Canyon Dam modifications in the EIS.

“Reclamation dropped the ball three years ago when they refused to start constructing the bypass. Time is wasting”, says Gary Wockner of Save the Colorado, referring to Reclamation’s 2023 proposal and diagrams for tunneling around or through Glen Canyon Dam.

For the past 15 years, Reclamation’s “most probable” forecasts have drastically overestimated runoff. The current hydrology is far drier than the previous 30 years used to model Reclamation’s forecasts, meaning “minimum probable” forecasts are now the most accurate.

Bureau water level predictions versus reality. The declining levels of Lake Powell between 2009 and 2022 are shown in black with red lines showing Bureau of Reclamation 24-month forecasts. The Bureau’s forecasts  often overestimate the amount of water that will be in Lake Powell. Reproduced from Center for Colorado River Studies White Paper #7, Figure 7.

 “We can’t rely solely on the Post-2026 EIS to avoid calamity. We need to start looking at bypassing Glen Canyon Dam immediately.” says Eric Balken.

Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Powell have long been seen as an asset to Upper Basin states. But once its outdated infrastructure compromises water deliveries downstream, it will become a liability, forcing drastic reductions in Colorado, Utah and New Mexico. “Every state in the Colorado River Basin should be worried about the inaction at Glen Canyon Dam.” says Zach Frankel.

“The numbers are inauspicious but not unexpected. Now is the time for the Trump Administration to change the mindset on the river and its tributaries once and for all. In order to stabilize the system in the coming years, the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states must all cut usage and forgo any ideas about new water delivery projects. Water is not available to meet existing demands — let alone new requests that we see popping up in regulatory dockets week after week. States like Utah and Colorado are planning to use more when others like Nevada are using less. It defies logic. All states — not just a few — need to make meaningful cuts and they need to do it now.” says Kyle Roerink, executive Director of Great Basin Water Network.

For Information Call

801-631-2774 Eric Balken; 801-699-1856 Zach Frankel; 970-218-8310 Gary Wockner

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